決策者的賭技

決策祕技3步驟，釐清賭局風險
決策者常需在不確定的情況下、冒著風險做決定，所以不管是大決策、還是小決策，每個決策都在 賭。「經營之賭」的專家艾琳‧夏比洛（Eileen Shapiro）認為，釐清「這賭局值得我玩嗎？」是參與賭局最重要的第一步，免得賭的時候進退失距，輸得莫名其妙；好不容易贏了，又發現得到的不是自己 想要的結果，那就太划不來了。

她提出3個事前必須考慮的面向，讓我們檢視一場賭局到底值不值得投入：

1.先看「利」
當開始思考一個賭局是否值得我們下場時，應先檢視有利的一面。這麼做有一項重要理由：如果不先了解利之所在，你或許始終看不見參與賭局的好處，而在躊躇中將大好機會拱手讓人。

此外，對某人來說極為有利且具吸引力的賭局，對另一個人卻可能只是雞肋。所以根據自己的價值觀，決定什麼遊戲吸引自己是第一要務。如果評估結果發現，就算在最佳的情況下你也不太喜歡其中之利，那麼應該可以決定這場賭局不值得玩。

2.再看「弊」
逢賭必有風險，但風險有大有小。損失一筆你認為還過得去的金錢，和背上債務、摧毀友誼、喪失信譽、入獄或危及生命，這兩者有天壤之別。所以評估任何賭局之弊的第一步，就是知道你將承受哪種風險，還有所受影響的程度究竟有多少。

一 般而言，如果一件事的利之所在正是你希望實現的，人們通常會看不到太多其中之弊，而可能低估其中潛在代價。這種情況下，強迫自己思考其中不利點，以及想想 一旦最壞的情況發生，人生將是何等光景，這將是極為實用的做法。而如果可以了解到同一場賭局中其他參與者如何評估其弊，你或許可以想辦法運用這項資訊，玩 得更聰明、更有效率。

3.檢查遊戲規則
在找出賭局的潛在價值後，最後一件事就是了解遊戲規則和制訂規則者。

了解規則可以讓你開始估計，你的結果會落在利弊的哪一點。了解誰在控制規則，則可讓你預知這些規則可能會怎麼改，以及這些改變對你有利，還是有害。在某些情況下，光是知道規則是什麼、以及誰是規則制訂者，就能提供你足夠的訊息，你可藉此輕易預測未來最可能的結果。

source post [Manager Today經理人月刊] 

Gliffy: Create diagrams and flowcharts on the web

Web-based clones of Excel and Word are nothing-how about a diagramming tool a la Visio? Gliffy is a Flash-based diagramming and flowcharting tool for your web browser. Gliffy's interface, though an unpleasant shade of blue, is snappy and fairly easy to use, allowing you to create flowcharts, network diagrams, and even floor plans or UI mock-ups pretty quickly. Of course, it doesn't have the more advanced features that $200 diagramming tools come with, but it does have sharing and collaboration features, revision control (i.e. if someone screws it up, you can roll back to a previous version of your diagram), and the ability to export ot SVG or JPEG (what, no PNG?). Gliffy's examples page shows off some of the impressive stuff it's capable of. Gliffy is currently in public beta and free, but in the future they'll be splitting it into two products, an ad-supported feature-limited version and a premium subscription-based version "for the business user."

source post [download squad] 

Google Spreadsheets

Back in March Google turned some heads with its purchase of Writely, a collaborative web-based word processor. Yesterday it made waves again with Google Spreadsheets, a web-based app whose purpose isn't necessary to explain. Google Spreadsheets is no Excel-killer by any means, but from the ten minutes or so of poking around I've done, it seems a lot nicer than any of its web-based competition like ajaxXLS, Numbler, iRows, or WikiCalc. Like those others, it's naturally full to the brim with Ajax, but I think what sticks out most is how responsive it is and how easy it is to use coming from years of being trained by Excel. There is a bit of JavaScript lag, but not enough to bug me, and the most common Excel keyboard shortcuts are all present. It of course has the requisite import and export features for both .XLS and .CSV files, plus a nice Export HTML function, and you can invite people via e-mail to view or edit your spreadsheets. Google Spreadsheets will have little draw for people who just use Excel to keep track of, say, personal expenses, but if you need easy web-based collaboration in a tidy package and can forego some-well, almost all–of Excel's more advanced features, Google Spreadsheets is worth checking out.

It's been noted many places that Google now has almost an entire Office-alike (sans PowerPoint) in its collection: Gmail/Google Calendar vs. Outlook, Writely vs. Word, Google Spreadsheets vs. Excel, Google Base vs. Access. What they have is a long way from being an Office-killer–in fact, it seems more like a hodge-podge of unconnected tools rather than a suite, and I think integrating these disparate tools is high on Google's to-do list. Whether they're really looking to usurp Microsoft's Office throne is still pretty unknowable in my opinion, but I do hope they're going somewhere with all of this.

source post [download squad]